Leisure tourism is undergoing a profound transformation: people are increasingly investing in memories and experiences, driving the market toward structural growth that opens up enormous opportunities for hotels, airlines, and local operators. According to projections, by 2040, leisure travel will be worth $15 trillion, driven by younger, digital, and global demand.
Leisure is not only expanding in value, but also evolving in terms of the mix of motivations and spending. Analyses show a robust increase in overnight stays in the first half of the decade, with the pace normalizing but remaining solid until 2040. At the same time, spending on leisure travel is growing faster than volumes, signaling a willingness to purchase higher quality experiences (wellness, culture, entertainment).
The next wave of travelers comes from emerging markets, where the middle class is growing and travel is becoming part of the lifestyle. China, India, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Egypt, Morocco, Vietnam, Bolivia, Malaysia, and Turkey are leading the way, with domestic and regional travel predominating in the early stages. At the same time, Millennials and Gen Z are the most influential travelers globally, while in some Asian economies, Gen X also continues to play a significant role.
To design truly effective offerings, it is useful to read the market through traveler archetypes:
These clusters coexist with cross-cutting trends: multigenerational travel, fluid groups and — conversely — solo travel, now mainstream (between 18% and 39% say they travel alone, with a preference for cities and events). In addition, work and pleasure converge in bleisure: over 70% of travelers in China, India, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia plan to combine business and leisure, compared to 15–30% in mature markets such as the US, UK, and Germany.
Conversational searches with LLM-based agents (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini) lengthen and enrich the inspiration phase, while social commerce anticipates “in-app” booking. Hotels that transform navigation into hyper-personalized paths (mobile-first, dynamic offers, creator content) are better at capturing demand. Interestingly, where AI is appreciated, the value attributed to human interaction also grows—a sign that successful hospitality remains a balance between high tech & high touch.
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